Le ultime tre udienze del processo sulla gestione dei fondi della Segreteria di Stato hanno lasciato aperti i dubbi su una eventuale falsa testimonianza del principale accusatori. E intanto torna una vecchia conoscenza.

Monsignor Alberto Perlasca, per 12 anni capo dell’amministrazione della Segreteria di Stato, ha rigettato la definizione di super-testimone, sebbene sulle sue dichiarazioni si fossero basate molte delle ricostruzioni o delle teorie dei magistrati vaticani. Ma, dopo queste ultime udienze, la sua credibilità come testimone viene messa a dura prova. Così come restano dubbi su Gianfranco Mammì, direttore generale dell’Istituto delle Opere di Religione, che fu colui che diede il via alla procedura che ha portato al processo con una denuncia.

Nelle udienze 29,30 e 31 del processo, Mammì è stato sentito per la prima volta, si è contraddetto in alcune circostanze. Perlasca, invece, è stato sentito ancora una volta per chiarire alcune parti della sua testimonianza che risultavano poco chiare, e persino inconciliabili con la realtà. L’interrogatorio di Mammì lascia delle domande aperte, ma è iniziato e finito in quel momento. Quello di Perlasca, invece, ha aperto uno scenario che si poteva considerare insospettato. Ma andiamo con ordine.

Il processo

Come è noto, il processo sulla gestione dei fondi della Segreteria di Stato include tre filoni di indagine: quello sull’investimento della Segreteria di Stato su un immobile di lusso a Londra, non l’unico tra l’altro; quello sulla vicenda cosiddetta “Sardegna”, e cioè su un presunto peculato del Cardinale Angelo Becciu, al tempo in cui era sostituto della Segreteria di Stato, in favore della sua famiglia per delle donazioni della stessa Segreteria di Stato alla Caritas di Ozieri, sua diocesi di provenienza; e infine il filone che riguarda Cecilia Marogna, la sedicente esperta di intelligence che è stata “ingaggiata” dalla Santa Sede e coinvolta in trattative per la liberazione di alcuni ostaggi.

Tre filoni di indagine portano, ovviamente, ad avere molti dettagli da seguire, all’interno del processo. C’è, però, un quadro generale che è importante rendere.

Monsignor Perlasca

Quando la scorsa settimana monsignor Perlasca era stato chiamato a testimoniare, per quattro volte Giuseppe Pignatone, presidente del Tribunale Vaticano, lo aveva invitato a fare attenzione alle sue dichiarazioni, perché poteva essere incriminato per falsa testimonianza. In particolare, c’era un episodio tutto da definire: nel suo memoriale, Perlasca raccontava che il Cardinale Becciu aveva deposto contro di lui, ma al momento del memoriale non c’erano stati attacchi personali di Becciu nei suoi confronti, ma nemmeno una deposizione di Becciu. Perlasca non aveva detto chi gli aveva suggerito che c’era stata una deposizione del cardinale.

Lo ha però rivelato il promotore di Giustizia, Alessandro Diddi. Il 30 novembre, nel momento in cui sarebbe dovuto essere interrogato monsignor Perlasca, Diddi ha reso note una serie di chat, ricevute alla fine della settimana precedente e per questo non agli atti, inviatigli dalla signora Genevieve Ciferri. Questa era l’amica di famiglia di Perlasca che ha lasciato anche al monsignore una nuda proprietà.

 

La signora ha rivelato al promotore di Giustizia vaticano che tutti i passi che ha consigliato di fare a monsignor Perlasca, inclusa la famosa cena al ristorante Scarpone con il cardinale Becciu, gli erano stati suggeriti da quello che il monsignore conosceva come “un anziano magistrato”, ma che altri non era che Francesca Immacolata Chaouqui, già membro della Commissione Referente per lo Studio della struttura economica amministrativa della Santa Sede (COSEA) e poi processata nell’ambito del procedimento cosiddetto Vatileaks 3.

Chaouqui non solo avrebbe suggerito alla Ciferri cosa dire a Perlasca di fare, passo dopo passo, ma avrebbe anche detto di farlo in nome dei magistrati vaticani, dimostrando una conoscenza precisa di quello che accadeva dentro le Mura Vaticane.

Ciferri lo ha spiegato a Diddi con parole che lasciano pensare ad una manipolazione, ma certo resta insoluta la domanda sul perché Chaouqui abbia preso questa iniziativa, e anche di come sia venuta a sapere che c’era un procedimento vaticano in corso, considerando che al tempo in cui cominciò i contatti ne potevano esssere a conoscenza solo gli inquirenti e i gendarmi vaticani che conducevano le indagini.

Monsignor Perlasca alla fine ha testimoniato anche di aver ricevuto minacce dalla stessa Chaoqui, ha riprodotto chat continue che gli venivano inviate dalla sua utenza in termini minacciosi, ha notato di non aver bloccato il numero solo perché la stessa Chaouqui lo aveva intimato di non farlo.

Ed è venuto fuori anche che il 4 febbraio 2021 Genevieve Ciferri ha telefonato allo studio di Diddi, lamentando delle minacce e della presenza ingombrante della Chaouqui, e che il promotore di Giustizia abbia riferito della telefonata in una nota ad uso interno inviata alla Gendarmeria. E poi, l’1 marzo 2022, c’è Perlasca che avvisa la Gendarmeria di sentirsi minacciato dalla Chaouqui.

Sono dettagli che sono rimasti finora fuori dal processo, e sul quale dunque le difese non hanno potuto fare il controesame, ma che gettano diverse ombre sulla testimonianza di Perlasca, che tra l’altro ha prima riferito di aver ricevuto un solo messaggio dalla Chaoqui, poi una quindicina, anche se molto scaglionati nel tempo.

Su queste nuove evidenze arrivate nel cellulare di Diddi, 126 messaggi di cui 119 con omissis, si gioca la credibilità del teste Perlasca.

Anche perché c’è poi la questione della cena allo Scarpone, e del sospetto che nel ristorante ci sia stata una attività di intercettazione da parte vaticana senza informare la polizia italiana. Non ci sono controprove di questo sospetto, solo che Perlasca dicesse che si era convinto nella sua testa che registrassero. Perlasca ha comunque dichiarato: “Io dovevo solo informare”.

Nell’anno venturo, saranno sentite Chaouqui e Ciferri. Colpisce, però, il fatto che Chaouqui dimostrasse di conoscere così bene il procedimento e le situazioni vaticane da essere in grado di dire a Ciferri quando Perlasca rientrava a casa. Chi forniva le informazioni alla Chaouqui? Era implicata la Gendarmeria?

Ed è un dato da notare che Chaouqui, nel luglio 2021, ha dato dichiarazioni spontanee alla Gendarmeria, e che il suo avvocato era lo stesso Sammarco da cui si fa rappresentare Perlasca nella sua funzione di parte civile per subornazione.

Colpiva anche il fatto che all’inizio dell’interrogatorio di Perlasca fossero presenti diversi gendarmi di quelli sentiti per una testimonianza, incluso quello Stefano De Santis che ha gestito le indagini e che non sarebbe potuto essere presente perché deve ancora terminare il controesame. Era previsto anche un interrogatorio di De Santis questa settimana, rinviato per sue “improrogabili ragioni di servizio”.

Sono tutti dati su cui riflettere. Pignatone, cercando di andare oltre, è arrivato a chiedere anche a Perlasca perché avrebbe dovuto ricevere difesa da Becciu, e Perlasca si è limitato a dire che Becciu non aveva fatto niente per lui. Poi, è stato chiesto perché, nonostante le cose che diceva di Tirabassi, Perlasca non gli avesse mai bocciato una proposta di transazione finanziaria.

Se questa, comunque, è la testimonianza chiave del processo, è chiaro che è inquinata al limite da una esuberanza dell’amica che voleva aiutare a tutti i costi ne ha influenzato i passaggi processuali.

Quanto sarà considerato credibile monsignor Perlasca in sede di sentenza?

Mammì

L’1 dicembre, è stato finalmente sentito il direttore generale dello IOR Gianfranco Mammì. È stata sua la segnalazione che ha dato il via al processo. La Segreteria di Stato aveva chiesto all’Istituto di Opere di Religione di rilevare il mutuo acceso presso Cheyne Capital con un altro prestito, che sarebbe servito a entrare in pieno possesso del palazzo di Londra e avrebbe anche permesso allo IOR un piccolo profitto.

 

Dopo vari studi, lo IOR aveva acconsentito al prestito, salvo poi fare marcia indietro tre giorni dopo. Nel mezzo, lo stesso Pena Parra aveva fatto pedinare il direttore dello IOR Mammì.

Nell’interrogatorio, Mammì ha detto che lo IOR poteva fare prestiti solo in casi specifici, e che aveva persino avvertito una pressione a fare il prestito, anzi, che l’Autorità di Informazione Finanziaria non si era comportata in maniera terza, ma come parte in causa, facendo pressioni perché lo IOR accettasse di fare una operazione che a suo dire non aveva adeguate coperture.

Poi però a Mammì è stato letto un documento che dimostrava come lo IOR fosse autorizzato a fare prestiti, sempre in determinate condizioni, e lui ha sottolineato che era vero, ma che le condizioni non si erano verificate.

Quindi, è stato letto dalle difese un altro documento che dava parere positivo sul prestito alla Segreteria di Stato, pur facendo emergere qualche criticità. “Voi potete dire che quel parere tecnico è positivo, ma per me è negativo”, è stata la risposta, secca, di Mammì.

Quindi, Mammì ha detto di aver partecipato ad una riunione in Segreteria di Stato dopo aver fatto la denuncia per l’operazione del palazzo di Londra, e di non aver detto niente per riservatezza. Quando però gli è stato chiesto se avesse detto prima della denuncia, ha negato di averlo detto.

È stata una testimonianza a tratti precisa, a tratti aggressiva, con diverse contraddizioni e anche opinioni personali. Resta da comprendere perché, se tuti i pareri erano a favore, Mammì aveva deciso piuttosto di denunciare. Tanto più che lo IOR ha dei precedenti di prestito più ingenti, come quello per il monastero di Dalia in Croazia, e dunque non ha un pregiudizio storico nei confronti del sostegno.

Resta anche da comprendere se, dati i bilanci sempre più in discesa nonostante una narrativa che punta a mostrarne la positività, lo IOR avesse la liquidità necessaria per il prestito. Altrimenti, l’intera operazione potrebbe definirsi come un depistaggio delle autorità vaticane nel raccogliere prove per le indagini.

Resta che l’interrogatorio di Mammì ha lasciato più dubbi che risposte. Sono dubbi che ci limitiamo a fornire al lettore.

 

Le altre testimonianze

 

In questi giorni sono stati anche sentiti Di Iorio, officiale e notaro della Camera Apostolica, e Luca Dal Fabbro, manager molto noto. Il primo, cui era stato chiesto di apporre una firma, ha detto di aver semplicemente apposto la firma, senza nemmeno conoscere il contenuto dei fogli. Il secondo ha spiegato che era stato chiamato dalla Segreteria di Stato prima a valutare la situazione di Londra, tanto che fu lui a far sapere che le azioni del broker Gianluigi Torzi, che aveva rilevato la gestione, erano le uniche con diritto di voto. Poi, aveva anche consigliato la Segreteria di Stato per altri immobili che aveva a Londra, e infine aveva rinegoziato i prestiti.

E poi c’è stato Fabio Perugia, consulente, che aveva presentato un cliente alla Segreteria di Stato, Valeur, che voleva rilevare il palazzo di Londra e che lamentava che ogni offerta venisse rimbalzata. Era lo stesso cliente di Perugia, che per circa sei mesi era stato socio di Torzi, a lasciare intendere che questo avvenisse per del malaffare in Segreteria di Stato, con un gioco che portava alcune persone coinvolte a prendere delle percentuali.

Da segnalare, infine, la testimonianza del Cardinale Oscar Cantoni sulla presunta subornazione di Becciu nei confronti di Perlasca. Cantoni ha testimoniato che Becciu gli ha chiesto di parlare a Perlasca, ma senza minacciare alcunché.

 

Alcune conclusioni

Come visto, sono molte le domande che restano aperte. La prima: quale è la credibilità del testimone Perlasca? Che ne porta con sé un’altra: quale è il peso, e soprattutto con chi parla, Francesca Immacolata Chaouqui in Vaticano? Chi passa a lei le informazioni (ad esempio) degli accessi, che sono in mano quasi esclusivamente alla Gendarmeria?

Poi: quale è il ruolo dello IOR nella vicenda? Se l’AIF ha forse peccato di eccesso di istituzionalità nella volontà di aiutare un ente sovrano, perché lo IOR non ha avuto la stessa preoccupazione e perché ha mostrato una preoccupazione che i pareri tecnici non avevano dato?

E infine: c’è un rischio di mettere in questione la terzietà dello stesso promotore di Giustizia proprio perché soggetto a ricevere messaggi da parti vicine alle parti in causa? Lo stesso promotore ha reso nota la situazione riguardante Chaoqui solo prima del secondo interrogatorio di Perlasca, mentre prima dell’inizio dell’altro interrogatorio, con tempistica che potrebbe essere soggetta a domande, aveva portato le carte del processo di Sassari e fatto sentire la telefonata di Becciu al Papa, anche se queste erano parte di un altro procedimento in Italia e non parte del processo vaticano.

Sono domande che restano lì, mentre il procedimento continua. Non si quando questo finirà. Si sa, però, che se non darà risposte a queste domande, sarà un processo tendenzialmente nullo.

According to Spanish press sources, among the suitors there would be Boluda, Balearia, Grandi Navi Veloci and Grimaldi but the latter has denied that it will be in the match

Naviera Armas

In the Mediterranean ferry market, a few hours after the news of the Greek Attica sold to Piraeus Bank (which in turn will probably try to find a buyer for the future), the news emerges that in the near future Naviera Armas will necessarily have to be put on the market .

After the death of Antonio Armas last March and due to a particularly complicated economic and financial situation (debts of half a billion euros), sources in the Spanish press reveal that the heirs of the Armas family and above all the creditors (particularly funds attributable to Jp Morgan, Barings, Cheyne Capital and Banco Santander) will soon sell the shipping company active from Spain to North Africa and to the Canary Islands.

The compatriot Balearia is given as the most interested suitor but also Boluda (which operates in container transport) seems to be looking at the dossier, while from Italy both the Grimaldi Group (which from Naviera Armas had taken over Trasmediterranea in 2021) and Msc for Big Fast Ships.

While the mouths of Geneva and Genoa remain sealed on whether or not they are interested in the Spanish company, Grimaldi Group denied to SHIPPING ITALY that it wanted to play this game despite the company being interested in consolidating and increasing its market share: “We are not among the suitors” the Neapolitan company limited itself to making known.

The deal, according to many, is particularly complicated; both for economic reasons (the company’s high debt and not very encouraging results), and for operational reasons (the vessel is not modern and maintenance has discounted the group’s financial situation), and for legal reasons (there are many open fronts with various counterparties, including creditors and also Acciona). A bit like what happened in the case of Moby for Compagnia Italiana di Navigazione (debtor of 180 million euros for part of the unpaid price for the purchase of the former public company Tirrenia), Naviera Armas also still has to pay 50 million euro to Acciona for the purchase of Trasmediterranea which took place in 2018 for 260 million.

To complicate the game there is also the growing competition on the routes between Spain and the Canary Islands both in passenger transport (where the Fred Olsen company is also active) and in cargo (with Boluda which through its container lines subtract traffic from maritime transport ro -ro).

Before dying Antonio Armas had entrusted the American consultancy firm Fti Consulting with the difficult task of putting this complex situation in order and negotiating a restructuring plan with funds and creditors that would allow the company to return to performing status . At the moment, the sale seems to be the only viable route to avoid bankruptcy even if it will not be easy to find buyers interested in dealing with such a complicated business situation.

Real estate credit units managed by Cheyne Capital have raised £2.5bn ($3.1bn) since the pandemic, underlining investor interest in the sector.

The London-based firm, which has tilted towards private credit and real estate since the financial crisis, has deployed over £2bn ($2.5bn) in real estate credit loans this year alone.

Cheyne announced the fundraising into its sixth and seventh real estate credit funds, and some separately managed accounts, on Tuesday.

The $10bn manager’s strategy makes loans, typically senior, to large established borrowers in the UK and Western Europe for real estate assets expected to increase in value and de-risk the loans over time.

The programme’s recently announced loans include over €200m to the KSL Capital-owned Beaumier hotel group, £219m to Riverstone for its Kensington later living scheme and £187m to LaSalle Investment Management for the acquisition and construction of a Regal London mixed-use development in Wembley.

Cheyne’s 38-strong real estate team is also developing a scoring-based framework which allows them to analyse and score ESG factors in relation to real estate lending.

“In the current environment of global uncertainty and market volatility, we believe we are well-placed to continue delivering consistent returns and protecting our investors’ capital,” said Ravi Stickney, managing partner and CIO of Cheyne Real Estate.

Hotel Ändra joins Accor: Hotel Ändra Seattle in Seattle, Washington, has become the latest addition to Accor’s MGallery Hotel Collection. The 10-story hotel features 123 rooms and suites, and two restaurants and hosts a cooking school led by Seattle-based chef and restaurateur Tom Douglas, who also helms one of the restaurants at the property. The hotel recently underwent a US$12 million property-wide renovation. The MGallery Hotel Collection has over 55 hotels globally in varying stages of development. Accor is also set to open the first MGallery Hotel & Residences in Mexico, with the debut of Mayaliah Tulum Hotel & Residences – MGallery, expected in 2024.

avid hotels debuts in Canada: IHG Hotels & resorts has opened the first Canadian avid hotels property in Vaughan, Ontario. The avid hotel Toronto – Vaughan Southwest, owned by PI Cap, is the first out of four planned properties in Canada for IHG’s new Essentials brand. The 119-key hotel features grab-and-go options, a lobby, a pool, and gym. Currently, IHG has 180 open hotels in Canada and 40 more in the pipeline. With over 50 locations open in the U.S., Mexico and Canada, avid hotels plans to grow its footprint in Canada with more properties planned in Woodstock and Belleville in Ontario and Lethbridge, Alberta.

Xenia completes Kimpton Denver sale: Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc., Orlando, Florida, has completed the sale of the 189-room Kimpton Hotel Monaco Denver for US$69.75 million (US$369,000 per key). The sale price represents a 14.9x multiple on 2019 hotel EBITDA and a 20.6x multiple on hotel EBITDA for the 12 months ended September 30, 2022. The buyer has not been named. Xenia will use the proceeds from the sale for general corporate purposes, including share repurchases, repayment of debt, capital expenditures and acquisitions in line with the company’s long-term plans. Xenia owns 32 hotels totaling 9,508 rooms across 14 states.

Digital tipping at BWH hotels: BWH Hotel Group has selected eTip as a digital tipping solution for its properties in the U.S. and Canada. eTip doesn’t require an app to be downloaded or login credentials. Guests can scan a QR code from their mobile phones to tip using their preferred payment methods. eTip also provides a “tap to tip” option, which allows guests to pay through an NFC-enabled QR code. Once the guest leaves a tip electronically, associates can receive the tip amount in their bank accounts in real-time through Visa Direct. eTip helps managers to allocate tips to individual associates or pool tips by a specific team or department.

Choice announces cash dividend: Rockville, Maryland-based Choice Hotels International, Inc. has declared a cash dividend on the company’s common stock of US$0.2375 per share. The dividend is payable on January 17, 2023 to stockholders of record on January 3, 2023. Choice has managed to grow its earnings per share by 17% a year over the past five years.

Edgewater acquires Historic Windsor: 125 West Lamar LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Paoli, Pennsylvania-based Edgewater Group LLC, has acquired the Historic Windsor Hotel in Americus, Georgia, for a reported US$12,500,000 or US$235,849 per key. The hotel will join Ascend Hotel Collection by Choice Hotels International. Built in 1892, the 53-key hotel occupies almost an entire city block. The five-story Victorian property comprises a tower and turret, balconies and a three-story open atrium lobby. The hotel offers six suites, business services for conferences and events, and two on-property dining options.

Foreclosure for Hilton Minneapolis: Hilton Minneapolis in Minneapolis, Minnesota, will reportedly be auctioned in a sheriff’s sale. The foreclosure auction of the 826-key hotel, which is still operational, is expected on January 13, 2023. The hotel is owned by Chicago, Illinois-based Walton Street Partners LLC and Fernandina Beach, Florida-based Haberhill. A Hennepin County judge ordered the foreclosure auction after finding the owners had been in default since April 2020 for failing to service a $180m refinancing loan they had taken out in November 2018.

NexGen acquires Chicago SpringHill Suites: Itasca, Illinois-based NexGen Hotels has acquired the 120-suite SpringHill Suites by Marriott Chicago Waukegan/Gurnee. The hotel includes an indoor pool, fitness center and a boardroom for small groups of up to 20 people.

Hard Rock to Bristol: Hard Rock International celebrated the groundbreaking of a permanent casino and hotel in Bristol, Virginia. Hard Rock International is partnering with The United Company and Par Ventures to open the 300-room The Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Bristol spanning 300,000 square feet and featuring 1,300 slots, 50 table games, a sportsbook, several dining venues and a live entertainment venue. The property is expected to open in 2024.

Monthly meetings, events volume beat 2019 levels: Monthly meetings and events volume in the U.S. surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic, achieving 103.1% of November 2019 volume in November 2022, according to the latest data by Knowland. This November saw a 122.5% growth over November 2021. In line with native seasonality, November 2022 fell 11% over October 2022. The average number of attendees per event this November was 118, compared to 105 in November 2021 and 104 in November 2019. The average space used this November was 3,028 square feet, while it was 2,501 square feet in November 2021 and 3,009 in November 2019. The top five growth markets in November compared to October were Las Vegas, San Juan, Fort Myers, Miami and Kauai Islands. The corporate market segment accounted for 53.5% of meetings and event business, with healthcare leading as the biggest industry segment.

Sydney’s Manly Wharf goes on sale: Manly Wharf, the retail and hospitality asset in Sydney, has been listed for sale for a reported price of AU$80 million (US$53.63 million) by Robert Magid of TMG Developments. Built in 1885 as a passenger terminal, it was converted into an iconic food and beverage destination by TMG Development after it acquired the long-term leasehold in 1995. Transport for NSW owns the original lease. This comes on the heels of Magid selling two hotels — the Harbour Rocks Hotel in Sydney and Hotel Lindrum in Melbourne.

Beaumier secures €200M loan: London-based Cheyne Capital Management has completed a senior loan of over €200 million (US$209.80 million) for Beaumier, the France-based luxury boutique hotel group owned by KSL Capital. The loan, provided by funds managed and advised by Cheyne’s real estate group, will be utilized to refinance the existing bank facilities and support a capital expenditure program to upgrade the Beaumier experience. Beaumier’s portfolio includes 12 lifestyle hotels totaling 546 rooms across in France, Spain and Switzerland. The company plans to grow its pipeline with expansion projects and acquisitions in key European destinations.

AJ Capital adds in Northern Ireland: Adventurous Journeys Capital Partners has acquired the Adelphi Portrush Hotel in Northern Ireland. The hotel, which will join the Marine & Lawn Hotels & Resorts portfolio, will continue to operate as Adelphi till autumn 2023. AJ’s in-house team will then start renovations of the rooms and common spaces. In late 2024, the hotel will relaunch as part of the Marine & Lawn brand, becoming the sixth property to join the collection.

Merger arbitrage hedge funds, which bet on the likelihood of corporate mergers and acquisitions closing, could benefit from the relentless rise of the dollar against the yen, the euro and sterling, according to a report in the Financial Times.

The strength of the dollar has boosted the buying power of investors with Greenback funding allowing them to potentially acquire foreign companies for lower cost than previously. One private equity executive even went so far as to state recently that “everything in the UK is on sale”.

The report quotes Pierre di Maria, head of event-driven at Cheyne Capital in London, as saying that he expects to see an increase in UK M&A activity on the back of sterling weakness.

Felix Lo meanwhile, a former Millennium trader who now runs a merger arb fund at Trium Capital, has built a screening tool to monitor the effect that these currency moves are having on cross-border deals. He expects US firms to be active saying that “US CEOs are the most bullish and eager to do deals”.

For Ramón Forcada Gallo, Director of Financial Analysis and Markets at Bankinter, we are in a progressive context change.

The impact of the economic situation on financing is one of the key factors in making real estate investment decisions in the current context. Savills, an international real estate consultancy, took the event ‘Real estate financing – keys and challenges’ to Madrid, in which banking experts and specialists in alternative financing explained the situation and how the market is adapting to the increase in interest rates  caused by high inflation.

The event was attended by Ramón Forcada Gallo, Director of Financial Analysis and Markets at Bankinter, who presented data on the current macroeconomic situation. According to his predictions, “3 to 6 confusing months remain… We are in a context change that will be progressive and we will have to get used to living with rates of 3% in the long term “.

For his part, Andrew McMurdo, co-head of Savills Capital Advisors at Savills UK, explained that “debt markets continue to operate normally, with a focus on quality funding, assets and cash-flow”. Furthermore, “debt advice is likely to be increasingly sought after as non-banks gain market share and markets become increasingly complex,” he concluded.

The roundtable, moderated by Javier Sarrado, CFO of Savills Spain, was attended by Jaime Vigón, CaixaBank’s Chief Administrative Officer for Real Estate, Construction and Infrastructure; Nicole Jürgensen, Head of International Clients at Münchener Hypothekebank, and Javier Quintela, Head of Iberia at Cheyne Capital, a firm specializing in alternative finance.

Sector not at risk, say experts

Financing experts agreed that at the level of analysis of operations, activity continues and has not stopped. The difference between before the summer and now, as they explained, is that the need to remain cautious while waiting for some positive indicator has been confirmed. They pointed out operations aimed at cash-flow generation as the best positioned to obtain financing.

In addition, everyone confirmed the importance of asset sustainability certifications to streamline and reduce the cost of operations. Green financing, as they explained, is becoming a matter of capital importance, in many cases decisive.

From Savills, financing specialists in Spain and Europe ensured that, taking into account the experience of other crises, at this moment the real estate sector is not at risk, there is financing, fundamentals and demand in the different real estate segments remain solid and the adapting to the new situation is essential for investment to remain active in this new context.

Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd (LON:RECI) maintained its disciplined approach to investing and delivering its quarterly 3 pence dividend per share.

Chairman’s statement – Bob Cowdell Chairman

The half year ended 30 September 2022 saw Russia’s illegal invasion and the war in Ukraine continue; increasing inflation throughout the World; and Central Banks in the UK and abroad responding by raising interest rates. The UK suffered political and market turmoil following the removal of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, the ill-fated tenure of Liz Truss and the “Mini-Budget” presented by her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, which destabilised credit markets. These events caused significant credit and currency market reaction and Rishi Sunak, the UK’s third Prime Minister since the start of the Company’s financial year, has the task of reassuring markets and negating the political risk premium embedded in credit and UK gilt markets.

Rising energy and commodity prices caused by the Ukraine conflict, have been a driver of steeply rising inflation and the expectation is for further increases in interest rates in response. These factors and the forecast of UK economic recession will exacerbate the “cost of living crisis” being felt by many. 

These international and domestic economic challenges have caused many headlines and much market volatility. Against this macro backdrop, your Board and Investment Manager have continued to provide RECI Shareholders and potential new investors with regular and detailed information: focusing on the Company’s portfolio and investment strategy (including its disciplined cash and leverage management); and the selective deployment of cash into an attractive pipeline of new senior debt investment opportunities offering increased returns for the portfolio.

Financial Performance 

RECI reported total net profit for the half year ended 30 September 2022 of £10.3 million on half year end total assets of £465.7 million; £14.2 million for the half year ended 30 September 2021 on half year end total assets of £449.8 million. The NAV as at 30 September 2022 was £1.48 per share (£1.51 per share as at 30 September 2021). The 30 September 2022 NAV reflects the payment of 6 pence per share during the half year in respect of the fourth interim dividend for the year ended 31 March 2022 and the first interim dividend of the current financial year, returning £13.8 million to Shareholders and providing an annualised NAV total return of 5.9% for the half year. During the half year ended 30 September 2022, the Company funded £97.0 million in both the origination of loans and purchases of new bonds for the portfolio. RECI also received net cash inflow from its operating activities (including cash repayments and interest) of £36.9 million in this period

Half Year review and update 

The NAV remained broadly stable during the half year to close at £1.48 per share at 30 September 2022, notwithstanding the payment to Shareholders of two unchanged dividends, totalling 6 pence per share, during that period.

Reaction to the 23 September “Mini-Budget”, saw yield widening in bond markets continue into October. As at 31 October 2022, however, RECI’s NAV was £1.49 per share, impacted by just 0.2 pence per share of negative mark-to[1]market adjustments across the bond portfolio. The first interim dividend of the current financial year was declared on 4 August 2022 and the second interim dividend was declared on 23 November 2022, both maintaining a payment of 3 pence per share. 

When the financial year began on 1 April 2022, RECI had gross leverage of 1.29x and leverage net of cash of 1.14x. Throughout the half year, the Board and Cheyne continued to monitor RECI’s cash resources and repayments and to consider the appropriate level, type and blend of gearing for the Company. At the half year end it held cash of £27.4 million and had gross leverage of 1.35x (1.27x net of cash). The Board and Cheyne continue to consider an expanded range and blend of potential gearing options, including asset level leverage on a non-recourse or partial recourse basis, alongside flexible balance sheet leverage. As at 31 October 2022, the Company had gross leverage of 1.39x (1.33x net of cash) with £10.2 million of asset level leverage (being all non-recourse).

The Company’s shares traded at an average discount to NAV of 2.4% during the financial half year. The market volatility following the “Mini-Budget” provoked much investor uncertainty in credit markets, contributing to some reactive selling of RECI shares on macro concerns, causing the discount to widen in the aftermath. Following the October Quarterly Update and a series of meetings between Cheyne and investors to update on RECI and the portfolio, the discount has begun to narrow. The Company’s shares closed at £1.35 on 21 November 2022 (a discount of 9.4%), which would provide a yield of 8.9% on the basis of continuing to pay a quarterly 3 pence dividend per share for the rest of the current financial year. 

Continuing your Board’s and Cheyne’s commitment to providing detail and transparency regarding the Company’s portfolio and investment strategy, Shareholder Quarterly Updates were also held in May and July 2022 and we appreciate the interest and attendance of both existing and potential new investors.

Outlook 

It appears inevitable that RECI will be operating against a backdrop of high inflation and increasing interest rates, combined with a challenging geo-political outlook, for the rest of this financial year. Nevertheless, the Company’s portfolio composition, structure and continued diversification into Western Europe, position it well to withstand these challenges and steer a course through difficult market conditions. 

Our Investment Manager has worked hard to strengthen the robustness of the Company’s portfolio, with the increased exposure to lower risk senior loans and bonds and the increased size and capital strength of our chosen counterparties. The loan portfolio now has a WAL of just 1.6 years and future loans are expected to be on a floating rate basis. 

As was demonstrated in previous times of economic stress and market uncertainty, Cheyne’s expert origination capability has identified a pipeline of attractive investment opportunities, targeting senior debt with enhanced yields, which will underpin the continued payment of an attractive and stable dividend and position the portfolio to enhance NAV. 

Your Board remains committed to providing investors with a long-term opportunity to receive an attractive dividend stream from an expertly managed exposure to real estate credit assets. 

 

Analyst comments: equity sectors

Anthony Leatham, Head of Investment Companies Research at Peel Hunt, said: “These are volatile times and the discount picture is evolving on a week-by-week basis.

“Whilst it feels like a ‘marmite’ choice at the moment, China cannot be ignored. We would highlight Fidelity China Special Situations trading on an 11% discount. A recent update from the manager – Dale Nicholls – points to some of the cheapest valuations across the underlying portfolio companies that he has seen in a long time. Investors are looking for a shift in policy focus to support growth and any positive action could act as a catalyst for a re-rating.”

Priyesh Parmar, Associate Director of Investment Companies Research at Numis, highlighted the opportunities he sees in Vietnamese specialist investment companies in the Country Specialist sector. He said: “The economy is performing strongly and inflation remains below the central bank’s 4% target. The reasons for the sell-off appear concentrated in an area of the market to which the listed funds have no direct exposure. Therefore, we believe this presents a strong buying opportunity. As Vietnam appears on the radar of more generalist investors this should provide a positive backdrop for the country and we believe there is potential for a tighter discount on the listed funds to be more sustainable in future. Furthermore, investors have the potential future catalyst of MSCI Emerging Markets inclusion, albeit this is at least a few years away.”

Analyst comments: alternatives sectors

Iain Scouller, Managing Director of Investment Funds at Stifel, said: “Despite some very strong NAV performance in recent years, many of the private equity funds were trading on discounts of 15% to 25% at the start of 2022. Whilst some haircuts to NAVs are to be expected in this environment, we think discounts are excessive. Even on a ‘worst-case’ view we do not anticipate writedowns in excess of -15% to -20%, which suggests discounts in a worst case are still 20% to 30% post any writedown. In an alternative scenario, where we see rising equity markets going into the 31/12/22 valuation point, we may actually see NAV increases on the funds over the second half of 2022. We also suspect the likelihood of corporate activity in the sector, such as takeover approaches is increasing, and if this materialises, we would expect a substantial positive sector re-rating.”

Myrto Charamis, Co-Head of Investment Companies at Berenberg, said: “I think there are many opportunities within the alternatives investment companies for investors to scoop up high quality strategies at very attractive valuations.

 

“For investors who are mainly looking for long-term capital appreciation I believe listed private equity is very cheap trading at an average discount to NAV of 30%. The sector, in my view, provides a lot of headroom for investors who believe valuations are too high.

“For investors who are mainly looking for yield, I believe there are a few great opportunities within the debt and renewables sectors which can compete with the current corporate debt yields. We note BioPharma Credit, which is trading at an 8% discount to NAV with a yield of 7.3%. It provides investors with predictable and uncorrelated returns through its unique strategy of investing in debt assets (primarily senior secured and royalty) in the life sciences industry. Real Estate Credit Investments is trading at a 9% discount with a yield of about 9%. It aims to deliver a stable quarterly dividend with minimal volatility, across economic and credit cycles by originating and investing in real estate debt secured by commercial or residential properties in Western Europe, focusing primarily on the UK, France and Germany. In the renewables sector I believe Harmony Energy Income Trust is the best opportunity with a yield of 7.2% trading at a 4% discount to NAV. It targets a 10% NAV total return, unlevered, by providing investors with unique exposure to two-hour duration grid scale battery energy storage systems in Great Britain which support the resiliency and flexibility of the energy system as the penetration of intermittent renewables increases.”

Anthony Leatham, Head of Investment Companies Research at Peel Hunt, said: “Inflation and rising rates have caused a broad rebasing of expectations across a number of sectors. We see value across renewables (here we highlight Octopus Renewables Infrastructure Trust with its diversified pan-European portfolio) as well as other real-asset strategies including the shipping trusts – Tufton Oceanic Assets and Taylor Maritime Investments, which are trading on deep discounts with generous, well-covered yields and a relatively active secondary market for their underlying investments compared with other real asset classes.

“Private equity trusts have followed the playbook of previous market corrections by selling off into a period of risk aversion. Given the inevitable lag in valuations, particularly across the funds of funds, we have compared the share price performance against NAVs lagged by four months. This data suggests that, whilst the market is quick to price in bad news, there is a consistent tendency to over-compensate. Our pick in the sector is HarbourVest Global Private Equity, which has delivered 23% annualised NAV total return over the last five years and is trading on a 45% discount to the end of September 2022 NAV. In our view, this is a rare discount opportunity for this company and one that has appeared only six times in the last 15 years.”

In this note, we review how Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd (LON:RECI) is positioned to face the current market challenges, noting i) the track record of superior credit assessment, monitoring and collection reducing the probability of default, ii) the high quality and high level of security limiting the loss in the event of default, iii) low exposure to high-risk sectors and proven limited loss in ones where they have had exposures in the past, iv) proven conservative accounting, and v) the benefits to income from rising rates and re-investment opportunities. There are risks, including investor sentiment and the macroeconomic environment, but the Cheyne team proved, through COVID-19, that it has the skills to deliver consistent returns in challenging times.

October quarterly update: Key themes are i) attractive returns from low LTV credit exposure to UK and European commercial real estate assets, ii) quarterly dividends delivering consistently since October 2013, iii) a highly granular book, iv) transparent and conservative leverage, and v) access to a strong pipeline.

October Factsheet: Recurring interest income added 1p to NAV. There was a negative 0.2p mark-to-market (MTM) on the bond portfolio, due to the bond market turmoil. RECI had cash of £22m and gross leverage of £134m. The book has 63 positions (37 loans, 26 bonds), with a weighted average LTV of 59% and a yield of 11.3%.

Valuation: In the five-year, pre-pandemic era, on average, Real Estate Credit Investments traded at a premium to NAV. In periods of market uncertainty, it has traded at a discount. It now trades at a 10% discount, a level not seen since late 2020. RECI paid its annualised 12p dividend in 2022, which generated a yield of 9.0% ‒ expected to be covered by interest.

Risks: Any lender is exposed to the credit cycle and individual loans going wrong. Security is currently hard to value and to crystallise. We believe RECI has appropriate policies to reduce the probability of default, and loss in the event of default. Some assets are illiquid, and repo financing has a short duration.

Investment summary: Real Estate Credit Investments generates an above-average dividend yield from well-managed credit assets. Bond pricing includes a slight discount, reflecting uncertainty, which should unwind when conditions normalise. Sentiment to market-wide credit risk is currently above-average, but RECI’s strong liquidity and debt restructuring expertise should allow it time to manage problem accounts. Borrowers, to date, have injected further equity into deals.

Keep Bermuda Beautiful [KBB] is collaborating with the Association of Bermuda International Companies [ABIC], the Ministry of Public Works and the Department of Parks in a project aimed at maintaining the railway trail for all to enjoy.

A spokesperson said,  “The railway trail is Bermuda’s largest national park and is home to a wide variety of endemic species and wildlife.

“The project, which is part of KBB’s Adopt-A-Spot programme, was launched in Spring, 2021, and involves partnerships with ABIC member companies. It is intended to enhance the natural beauty of the trail and preserve the environment through regular clean-ups.

“Each company has adopted a one-mile section of the trail spanning from St. George’s to Sandy’s, which they volunteer to clean twice per month. Some project partners have also expressed an interest in landscaping and beautification initiatives along their section of the trail, including the possible installation of strategically placed trash/recycling bins and benches.”

KBB’s Board President, Stefan Smith, said “I would like to thank the Parks Department, ABIC and the corporate partners for their individual and collective contributions to the Railway Trail Project. KBB is pleased to be the facilitator of programmes which have measurable impacts such as keeping the trail maintained and accessible for all. We appreciate everyone’s efforts and support, especially the donors and volunteers who are making this project such a success.”

Wayne Smith, ABIC’s Executive Director, added “Richard Winchell and Greta Peters of ABIC were instrumental in bringing this project to fruition. Environmental Social Governance [ESG] is currently at the forefront of most corporate platforms and ABIC is happy to support the Railway Trail Project. It is a perfect way for ABIC members to give back to one of Bermuda’s leading environmental charities, KBB, and be involved with a great project that’s creating real results.”

The spokesperson said, “Cheyne Capital is a founding member of the project and Cynthia Cox, Cheyne’s General Manager, has been instrumental in bringing ABIC and the corporate partners together.”

Ms. Cox said “The more I walked the trail, it became clear that it needed an Adopt-A-Highway type programme more than large-scale clean-ups.

“Fortunately, ABIC, KBB and the Parks Department were keen to collaborate, and ABIC member companies partnering with KBB’s Adopt-A-Spot programme are a perfect fit. What we all love is that a small amount of organised time and effort is producing big results, thus making the historical trail more beautiful and viable for everyone. This project is a great example of how public, private and non-profit collaboration can succeed and I would like to thank Cheyne Capital for continuing to support important causes like this one with time, energy and funding.”

Stuart Fiertz, co-founder and president at $10bn London firm Cheyne Capital Management, appeared on episode 9 of the AFI podcast. Here are five takeaways from the interview.

https://soundcloud.com/alternativefundinsight/episode-9-stuart-fiertz-on-cheynes-shift-uk-outlook-and-future-of-alternatives?utm_source=clipboard&utm_campaign=wtshare&utm_medium=widget&utm_content=https%253A%252F%252Fsoundcloud.com%252Falternativefundinsight%252Fepisode-9-stuart-fiertz-on-cheynes-shift-uk-outlook-and-future-of-alternatives

1. Cheyne shifted to private credit after 2008

Fiertz discussed (from 1:47) the development of Cheyne since the financial crisis, moving towards private credit with an initial focus on real estate-backed lending. It then started providing debt to recapitalise (primarily) non-sponsored European SMEs and most recently primary financing.

“In those non-sponsored areas — those parts of the market that are least well capitalised — we can keep our under-writing discipline and achieve good risk/reward and decent yields without having to sacrifice the covenants and credit enhancement that we want,” he says.

The firm now manages $10bn. Slightly over half is in real estate backed lending, a quarter is in the corporate distressed and non-sponsored SME space, and there is continuing activity in investment grade credit and a small amount in long/short equity.

2. The current market environment suits alternatives

(From 5:39) “It feels like the tide is going out and we are going to see who is still wearing swim trunks. There are a lot of strong currents that will effect the ability of companies to refinance. On the real estate side you have the combination of much higher interest rates with higher cap rates.”

Rolling debt will become very difficult for some. You will end up with some players “finding themselves to be over-leveraged” in this environment.

“You can see this in the share prices of some of the listed REITS,” he added, highlighting some of the German multi-family stocks. “That will be a dynamic area where there is no obvious beta to own so you need to move into more of an alternative approach.”

3. Private market should overcome tests to come

Fiertz is optimistic about the outlook for private credit in a rising rate environment and the challenges to come.

(From 11:25) “Private credit got a pretty good test during Covid and was able to work with borrowers and keep defaults at levels much lower than feared,” he says.

“Private credit is going to have more flexibility to be accommodating going forward than banks are. The question over private credit was what would happen when times got difficult. With the implementation of IFRS 9 it is much harder for banks to extend and pretend now.

“I think private credit will get through this cycle well. I think we will discover that covenants in the syndicated loan market and wider distributed loan market are very weak and so the recoveries will be low.”

4. Active/passive may replace alternative/traditional

Fiertz discussed (from 14:44) the development of the hedge fund industry, with many original players now operating in private markets or concentrating on long-only. He said investors now interpreted the sector in different ways, which partly explains why “Alternative fund manager” is preferred to “hedge fund manager” when funds describe themselves.

“Some investors view it as the actively managed part of their portfolio, some have long/only and a separate hedge fund mandate.”

In many ways the active versus passive element is more important. He added: “At some point there may not be alternatives. There might be active and passive, within which you have a range of criteria.”

5. UK faces challenge under Sunak — but exports should help

Speaking on the day Rishi Sunak was appointed prime minister, Fiertz (from 26:00) gave his view on the outlook for the UK. In short, it will be tough.

“The bond market vigilantes are back. They were in hibernation for a long time when the printing presses were whirring away. But they have come out because debt is high. Fiscal spending was profligate. We spent a lot of money during Covid and are now spending a lot on the energy side.”

Sunak will be well aware of this because of his hedge fund background, he added. And the cheap pound could help the country recover relatively quickly.

“I have always viewed the fact sterling is floating rate as one of out country’s greatest strengths. We saw that coming out of the 2008 financial crisis, with the weakness of sterling we were one of the first to start growing.”

He therefore expected to see some positive news coming on the export side, despite Brexit challenges: “We have to overcome stickier borders, more paperwork and maybe a bias against the UK.”